Origins and fundamental concepts of the competing-risks problem

The history of problems dealing with competing risks is briefly outlined, beginning with Daniel Bernoulli's 1760 “Mémoir” on mortality due to smallpox and proceeding through the development of actuarial techniques and methods used in clinical research, reliability theory, population dynamics, and other areas of application. A probabilistic formulation of the theory of competing risks is then presented which appears applicable to all these areas. Within the framework of this theory, some fundamental problems are stated and discussed, such as questions of identifiability, choices of estimation procedures, or techniques for testing hypotheses.     

238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Am, 90Sr and 137Cs in soils around nuclear research centre Rez, near Prague

Forty-four soil samples were taken around the nuclear research centre Rez, near Prague. The mean activity concentrations of 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Am, 90Sr and 137Cs in uncultivated soil were 0.010, 0.26, 0.12, 2.7 and 23 Bq.kg(-1), respectively. Contents of radionuclides in cultivated soil were lower and in forest soil higher than in uncultivated soil. The mean activity ratios of 238Pu/239,240Pu, 241Am/239,240Pu, 90Sr/239,240Pu and 239,240Pu/137Cs in uncultivated soil were 0.041, 0.47, 10.9 and 0.013, respectively. The mean activity ratios in cultivated and forest soils were close to the values given above. It follows from the results that the source of 239,240Pu, 90Sr and 137Cs in the studied area is deposition from atmospheric nuclear tests, in the case of 137Cs also deposition from Chernobyl accident. The contribution of the research centre effluents was not proved for these radionuclides. Increased activity ratio of 241Am/239,240Pu indicates the presence of 241Am in the soils studied emanating from sources other than nuclear tests. Uniform distribution of the 241Am/239,240Pu activity ratio around the nuclear research centre and the absence of an area with evidently higher activity ratio, including at sites lying in the main wind direction, suggest that the additional activity of 241Am does not originate from the nuclear research centre. The additional source might be the deposition following the Chernobyl accident.     

Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City

Istanbul has experienced rapid increases in population to more than 12 million people, which has created infrastructure problems of water supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. In this article, the achievements and approaches of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) to solve the water shortage problem and to improve services are summarized. Istanbul had a very severe water shortage problem in 1994 because of ignorance of the implementation of the needed projects. After reviewing the reasons and causes of the problem, new priority criteria adopted after 1994 are given. Following the implementation of the projects determined according to the aforementioned criteria, water supplied has exceeded the water demand. The added capacity is equal to one to three times of the capacity built up to 1994 for water treatment, service reservoirs, pumping stations, transmission lines, and the water distribution network; water quality has been improved the meet local and international potable water standards. Unaccounted for water has been reduced from 60% to 27%. The percentage of treated wastewater has been increased from 10% to 90% in 8 years, resulting in drastic improvements and rehabilitation of the Golden Horn and coastal water quality. Through improved customer services, complaints were reduced from 33% in 1994 to 0.3%. Some of the main criteria and the approaches behind this success are summarized. Published online     

Air bag effectiveness as function of impact speed

An investigation was conducted to estimate the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity. The study consisted of three parts: a theoretical idealization, an analysis of National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS), and a reanalysis of previously published Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. The theoretical analysis looked at idealized risk curves as a function of velocity; assuming that the air bag offers a benefit for both belted and unbelted occupants. Analysis of the NASS/CDS data looked at the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity for Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ injuries. The reanalysis of the previously published FARS data looked at the effectiveness of the air bag as a function of velocity for fatalities. The theoretical analysis indicates that the air bag effectiveness should be greatest at the low velocities. The field data analysis of both NASS/CDS and FARS were consistent with the theoretical analysis, indicating that air bags are most effective at the lower velocities, below 40 kph (25 mph), for both belted and unbelted occupants. Although it was not possible to estimate a different effect for belted and unbelted for fatalities using FARS, it was possible for MAIS 3+ using NASS/CDS. For unbelted occupants the effectiveness goes to zero or becomes negative above 40 kph (25 mph) for MAIS 3+, and for belted occupants the effectiveness stays positive but with significantly lower magnitude for speeds above 40 kph (25 mph).     

Relating net nitrogen input in the Mississippi River basin to nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River: a comparison of approaches

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between terrestrial N inputs and riverine N flux can help guide conservation, policy, and adaptive management efforts aimed at preserving or restoring water quality. The objective of this study was to compare recently published approaches for relating terrestrial N inputs to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) with measured nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Nitrogen inputs to and outputs from the MRB (1951 to 1996) were estimated from state-level annual agricultural production statistics and NOy (inorganic oxides of N) deposition estimates for 20 states that comprise 90% of the MRB. A model with water yield and gross N inputs accounted for 85% of the variation in observed annual nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River, from 1960 to 1998, but tended to underestimate high nitrate flux and overestimate low nitrate flux. A model that used water yield and net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) accounted for 95% of the variation in riverine N flux. The NANI approach accounted for N harvested in crops and assumed that crop harvest in excess of the nutritional needs of the humans and livestock in the basin would be exported from the basin. The U.S. White House Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CENR) developed a more comprehensive N budget that included estimates of ammonia volatilization, denitrification, and exchanges with soil organic matter. The residual N in the CENR budget was weakly and negatively correlated with observed riverine nitrate flux. The CENR estimates of soil N mineralization and immobilization suggested that there were large (2000 kg N ha-1) net losses of soil organic N between 1951 and 1996. When the CENR N budget was modified by assuming that soil organic N levels have been relatively constant after 1950, and ammonia volatilization losses are redeposited within the basin, the trend of residual N closely matched temporal variation in NANI and was positively correlated with riverine nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Based on results from applying these three modeling approaches, we conclude that although the NANI approach does not address several processes that influence the N cycle, it appears to focus on the terms that can be estimated with reasonable certainty and that are correlated with riverine N flux.     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

Analysis of microcystins in cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples from Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake,China

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China. In recent years, the water pollution of cyanobacteria blooms has become a severe problem in this area. Microcystins (MCs) are an important group of toxic compounds mainly produced by some cyanobacteria species and have both acute and chronic hepatotoxic effects on animals and humans. This paper presents the first data on the identification and detection of MCs in both natural occurring cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples (0-0.5 m), collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China. A conventional method for extraction and isolation of MCs from cyanobacteria blooms was applied. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis showed that the main toxic component in the cyanobacteria materials was MC-LR. The monoclonal antibody (mAb) against MC-LR produced by hybridoma technique was employed for direct competitive ELISA to detect the concentrations of MCs in bloom and water samples collected in 2001. The results not only revealed the presence of MCs but also temporal variations of MCs levels of three sampling stations in Meiliang Bay in 1 year. It is obvious that the MC contents were relatively higher during warm months and related with the status of eutrophication. Our study indicates the threat associated with MCs in water body of Taihu Lake. To prevent the MCs potential hazard on public health in this area, some necessary measures of monitoring and control of growth of cyanobacteria are urgently needed.     

Enzymatic characterization of organic phosphorus in animal manure

Information on the forms of P present in animal manure may improve our ability to manage manure P. In most investigations of manure P composition, only inorganic and total P are determined, and the difference between them is assigned as organic P. In this study, we explored the possibility of identifying and quantifying more specific organic P forms in animal manure with orthophosphate-releasing enzymes. Pig (Sus scrofa) manure and cattle (Bos taurus) manure were first sequentially fractionated into water-soluble P, NaHCO3-soluble P, NaOH-soluble P, HCl-soluble P, and residual P. The fractions were separately incubated with wheat phytase, alkaline phosphatase, nuclease P1, nucleotide pyrophosphatase, or their combinations. The released orthophosphate was determined by a molybdate blue method. Part of the organic P in those fractions could be identified by the enzymatic treatments as phytate (i.e., 39% for pig manure and 17% for cattle manure in water-soluble organic P), simple phosphomonoesters (i.e., 43% for pig manure and 15% for cattle manure in NaOH-soluble organic P), nucleotide-like phosphodiesters (2-12%), and nucleotide pyrophosphate (0-4%). Our data indicate that the enzymatic treatment is an effective approach to identify and quantify the organic P forms present in animal manures.     

137Cs and 90Sr behavioural regularities in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea

Variations in 137Cs concentrations were investigated over the period 1986-1997 in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea, following the Chernobyl power plant accident. The rate of "self-cleaning" was demonstrated to be very slow, the average concentration of 137Cs in 1996 being almost the same as that measured directly after the accident, in 1986. Measurements of both 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations generally revealed homogeneous distributions in this region of the Baltic Sea, though patchy distributions did develop under some hydrometeorological conditions. Specifically, the 137Cs concentration distribution became heterogeneous with values varying in the range 60-92 Bq/m3 under south-southwesterly wind conditions whilst the 90Sr concentration distribution developed similar characteristics with values ranging from 15 to 64 Bq/m3 under east-southeasterly wind conditions. In addition, in coastal waters, over extensive periods of north-northwesterly winds in 1995, 137Cs concentrations increased to values 1.5-2 times the overall average concentration, which was registered in 1986 and 1996. These data therefore reveal a continuing significant pollution of the waters of the Baltic Sea resulting from the Chernobyl power plant accident, a pollution compounded by the slow rate of radionuclide self-cleaning and significant probability of sudden regional concentration increase.     

Determination of T-2 toxin in grain and grain products by HPLC and TLC

The purpose of this study was to investigate the T-2 toxin contaminated grain and grain products consumed especially by Turkish population. The T-2 toxin was detected using the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detector at 208 nm and the identify of T-2 was further confirmed by thin layer chromatography (TLC). The recovery was 91 +/- 4.24% for corn flour fortified with the known amount of T-2 toxin (1 ppm). The detection limits of T-2 toxin for the HPLC and the TLC were 25 ng and 50 ng, respectively. A total of 30 commercially available grain and grain product samples were analyzed. Two corn flour samples were found to contain detectable levels of T-2 toxin at a level of 1.60 ppm and 4.08 ppm.